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Cabus S., van Klaveren C. and Cornelisz, I.: Is Job Turnover the Answer to Recession? – Evidence From the Netherlands

Job turnover can mitigate some of the consequences of a recession under the condition that the labor market is able to allocate workers to jobs efficiently; the allocation of workers to jobs yields better fits in terms of education; and the speed of job turnover should exhibit a countercyclical pattern. This hypothesis is tested for one European Union country, the Netherlands. We combine macro-level and micro-level analyses and indicate that the Beveridge curve for the Netherlands did not shift between 2005 and 2016. For the micro-level analyses, we use registered data of all inhabitants in the Netherlands in combination with a reliable scanning device for nationwide unfilled job openings. Detailed results of a competing risk survival model are in line with the aforementioned hypothesis: job turnover across sectors increases during prolonged periods of economic recession. Inter-sectoral mobility increases with educational attainment, however, no support is found for crowding-out effects. Instead, the high-educated benefit from transitions to sectors that have higher educational requirements than their previous sector of employment, but we also observe that low-educated persons are rather isolated in their labor market sectors. From the macro-level and micro-level findings, we argue that the Beveridge curve for the Netherlands did not shift, partly owing to the employability of skills of the high-educated across sectors, and partly because of the relatively high allocative efficiency of the Dutch labor market compared to other countries in the Euro Area.
Keywords: Education; Job Turnover; Job Openings; Labor Market Sector; Unemployment
JEL Codes: A20, I21, L86

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